The big snooze?

What was it like for you?  The 2016 Budget that is.  Earth shattering? A bit of a damp squid?  Well, it all depends on your perspective.  This morning, I'm picking out a couple of my highlights.


For the punter in the street the normal trigger points of beer, wine and whisky taxes were stroked, some positively, some negatively but overall nothing excessive.  Oh, apart from the fuel duty which will please everyone, drivers and business alike.

For the savers, and we know that pensions is a long-standing time-bomb that no Chancellor has managed to defuse, the life-time ISAs to encourage savings might please the IFAs and their kin.  Although I'm concerned about abolishing the Money Advice Service, that's supported a mountain of vulnerable individuals with their finances.  Which leads me on to...

For the public sector and those who rely on their services, the dire forecasts of savage budget cuts and more of the same?  Well they're only just starting to hit from the last lot and now there's more to come, although quite what they will be...      

The sugar tax.  Ah yes, the sugar tax.  Nice headlines from that.  Although we've got another few years to rot our teeth and increase the diabetes risk before that's put in place.  It's not an eye-opener though, most in the industry were accepting this would be coming down the line some time soon and so would already be putting their strategies in place.


Likewise investment in the infrastructure.  That will be a welcome boost to our industries, particularly in relation to road and rail, yet these are long, long-term plans, dependent on the political machinations of times to come, and so won't have an immediate effect on the economy.


Turning all schools into academies - for those in education, again the tide's been running that way for a number of years so it's no surprise.


Now for the smaller businesses, the small engines of entrepreneurship that keep our economy ticking over.  They're the biggest winners of the lot with rate relief, the major conurbations being able to retain their business rates for local investment, increased promise of reductions in corporation tax and abolishing of the Insurance Class 2 stamp.  It's a dodgy wicket though, with Osborne relying on income from the blue chips to help pay for it.


Will it mean big changes in how you run your business?  With the OBR downgrading the economic forecast, and 'those in the know' saying the country's productivity growth is permanently damaged, for SME's probably not.  For the big boys?  Well that's different, with the Chancellor's stated intent to chase them down for tax avoidance (although he's tried to do that before with little success) they will be looking again at their strategies and see if what they are already doing will fit, or whether they need to consider something anew.


And finally, for the economy as a whole? Well unless there's public confidence in the country's stability, belief by the individual that they've got secure employment, or that their zero contracts or minimal wage or compensatory benefits are not going to be cut, cut and cut again, no-one will be spending any money.  And that, that my friends, is the biggest risk of all. 

It's a matter of trust

The headlines are fired up today and the news channels alive with the news of the imposition of new contracts on junior doctors in the NHS. It's the latest stage of a three-year saga of claims, counter-claims, negotiations, hopes, disappointments and effort. I say latest, because even though it seems to be a final announcement, I suspect it's anything but.

How has this come to pass?

Obviously not being part of the inner-circle I can only offer my own perceptions on what could, or might, have happened here. And that's the point. It's down to perceptions. Perceptions of their own and each other's values, perceptions of position, power and status, perceptions of what's right, or not. Perceptions of truth and reality, perceptions of what was on offer and what was not, perceptions of how far the other side would bend or remain firm. Perceptions of trust.

This is where I think it has all fallen down. Trust is critical to any negotiation, whether it's public or private sector, it's critical to any productive relationship and trust is now all too lacking in this sad, sad stand-off. Was it ever there?

To understand how difficult it has become let's unpick the multiple levels of trust in this situation.

6 Levels of Trust

The first is the trust that the general public has about the NHS, our most major of institutions and, for anyone who has lived outside of the UK, one of its most precious.

The second is the level of trust in one particular section of the NHS - it's doctors. Trust from the general public, the individual patient, between colleagues and between the medical hierarchy.

The third is trust between the doctors and their representatives, in this case the BMA. The fourth is between the Minister and his advisors, his parliamentary colleagues and his own boss.

The fifth level of trust is between the press and its readers, whether it reports fairly and impartially and how it's used, or abused by interested parties.

And finally the sixth between the BMA and the Department of Health and, importantly the public face of the DoH, the Minister.

It's a complex beast isn't it, Trust? It takes careful nurturing to build and the slightest whiff to bring it down. A word, a phrase, a look can smash trust when emotions are raised or confidence is lacking in oneself. The individual then perceives the other in a negative frame, not willing or able to see that there might be a different interpretation. The language becomes gladiatorial: winning the battle, retreating, stepping back, stepping down, taking a stand.

Will trust be regained? It appears, and again I emphasis that this is my perception based on what the press have allowed me to read and hear, that the first four levels of trust will hold. The fifth is still shaky but the sixth, ah the sixth.

Which strategy to follow next?

How will the government respond? Once they've stood by the Minister to get the contract imposed what will happen in the succeeding months? Will they quietly move him on to allow a new face to re-build trust? Sometimes that is the only thing that can be done, regardless of the abilities of the individual. Or will the BMA re-think their approach, accept that this time they misjudged the situation and quietly settle on a new understanding, re-think their strategy of how to proceed the next time negotiations need to be undertaken?

Whatever the outcome, damage has occurred and both sides need to think long and hard about how they operate in the future. What's true for these protagonists is also true with any business negotiation.